If you take the money the US government has pumped into its economy and pour into practically any member of the UN, it will be washed off the surface of this planet. These trillions is producing the most unexpected outcomes. Yesterday I read the FDIC is contemplating borrowing money from the banks the government help to keep afloat because it is short of money from too many banks failing. The regulator is getting money from the regulated? How can this be?
It is beginning to dawn on me that money running around in rivers produce the most unexpected outcomes. When fear was high, the money was trapped in liquidity reservoirs. Now there is enough for it to flow any and every where - It is hasn't come to your neighbourhood yet (not your pocket) don't worry it will, likely as inflation and hopefully as economic opportunities for you as well.
No wonder it is impossible to tell if this economic recovery is real. Tolerate the debts, get on with any productive investment (can never be sure), service, manufacturing and consumption you can find, as long as it is not wasted, we could start virtuous cycles and create a real economic recovery. In short, the recovery is real if we make it so. However if we corrupt or waste it away, we will end up worse than we begun.